Singapore to Reduce Carbon Emissions by 16% Below 2020 Business-As-Usual Levels

March 20, 2010 by Eugene Tay
Filed under Issues and Policies

Before the Copenhagen Conference

On 2 December 2009, the Singapore government announced that Singapore will reduce its carbon emissions by 16% below 2020 business-as-usual levels, provided that:

Singapore will only commit to this if there is a legally binding global deal that obliges all countries to cut emissions, and if other countries offer significant pledges

- Senior Minister S. Jayakumar

This announcement was made in light of the UN Climate Change Conference 2009 (COP15) in Copenhagen, Denmark, which was held from December 7-18, 2009. Read more about the 16% cut and the government’s approach to COP15 from the Ministry of Foreign Affairs news release.

After the Copenhagen Conference

The discussions at COP15 failed to produce a legally binding global agreement and instead resulted in a non-binding Copenhagen Accord. Nevertheless, the Singapore government said that:

When a global agreement on climate change is reached we will implement the additional measures to achieve the full 16 percent reduction below business as usual in 2020

- Dr Yaacob Ibrahim, Minister for the Environment and Water Resources

The next round of climate talks and discussions on a global agreement will be at COP16 in Mexico from November to December 2010. Meanwhile, the government announced that it would still cut emissions by between 7% to 11% below business-as-usual levels, which was planned as part of the Sustainable Singapore Blueprint published in April 2009 (the 7% to 11% cut was not mentioned during the release of the blueprint). The full 16% cut will be implemented when a global agreement is reached in the future.

Our Thoughts on the 16% Cut

Singapore’s target means it will cut roughly 12 million tonnes of CO2 by 2020, said Dr Yaacob.

This is based on a projection that the country’s emissions would reach 75 million tonnes of CO2 by 2020 if no measures were taken.

- Straits Times

Singapore’s absolute carbon emissions in 2007 is about 40 million tonnes and from the statement above, it seems that the government projected that carbon emissions will reach 75 million tonnes in 2020 on a business-as-usual scenario. If Singapore takes action to reduce its emissions by 16%, the cut is equivalent to 12 million tonnes, meaning that emissions would reach 63 million tonnes in 2020. This cut is just based on 2020 levels, which implies that there is no peak in emissions and a drop thereafter. What we would expect is a continuous increase in absolute carbon emissions till 2020.

Carbon Emissions from 1990 to 2020

The graph above shows the absolute carbon emissions from 1990 (22 Mt) to 2007 (40 Mt) based on available published data by the government. If we do a projection of the emissions from 2008 to 2020 based on an estimated 5% annual growth (BAU), we would reach 75 Mt, which is the business-as-usual scenario projected by the government.

If we do a projection of the emissions from 2008 to 2020 based on an estimated 3.6% annual growth (pledge), we would reach 63 Mt, which is the 16% cut committed or the we-will-take-action scenario projected by the government.

From 1990 to 2007, the average annual emissions growth is about 3.6%. We would expect a projection for business-as-usual scenarios for the future to use this number but the government uses a higher business-as-usual growth of 5%.

What we find strange is that when the government commits to the 16% cut by 2020, it is reducing the average annual growth in emissions from 2008 to 2020 from 5% to 3.6%, which is the same annual growth as what we have been doing over the past 17 years. In other words, if we continue business-as-usual from 2008 to 2020 without the 16% cut, we would still reach the projected 63 million tonnes in 2020 or the we-will-take-action scenario.

So, are we really reducing carbon emissions by 16% from 2020 BAU levels or are we just assuming a higher BAU level in 2020 and then committing to 16% cuts, which results in a level we would reached anyway if we don’t take any measures to reduce emissions?

Let us know what you think.

Tags: Carbon emissions, COP15, Copenhagen Accord, Emissions cut, Emissions reduction, Sustainable Singapore, UN Climate Change Conference 2009

True or False: Singapore to Reduce Carbon Emissions Growth by 16% from 2020 BAU Levels

December 8, 2009 by Eugene Tay
Filed under Insights

Singapore’s National Policies on Energy and Climate Change

May 14, 2009 by Eugene Tay
Filed under Features, Issues and Policies

2 Comments

This summary aims to provide a brief overview of Singapore’s national policies on energy and climate change, and is divided into the following sections:

National Policy Reports
Energy Policy Group
Singapore’s Economic Focus
Energy Supply
Clean Energy
Carbon Intensity and Energy Efficiency

singapore-nightlight

1. National Policy Reports

The Singapore government’s policies on energy and climate change can be found in three national reports:

National Energy Policy Report (published Nov 2007)
National Climate Change Strategy (published Mar 2008)
Sustainable Development Blueprint (published Apr 2009)

These three reports are essential reading for those who wish to have an overall picture of what the government is doing or plan to do on issues related to energy, climate change and the environment. There’s also another previous report worth reading – the Singapore Green Plan 2012 (2006 edition), published in Feb 2006.

2. Energy Policy Group

Climate change and energy issues are complex and cut across different sectors and industries, and involve policies from different ministries and agencies. The Singapore government recognises the need to have an integrated approach to dealing with energy and climate change, and has adopted a whole-of-government approach led by the Energy Policy Group (EPG) since Mar 2006. The EPG consists of representatives from the:

Ministry of Trade and Industry (MTI)
Ministry of Finance (MOF)
Ministry of Foreign Affairs (MFA)
Ministry of the Environment and Water Resources (MEWR)
Ministry of Transport (MOT)
Agency for Science, Technology and Research (A*STAR)
Building and Construction Authority (BCA)
Economic Development Board (EDB)
Energy Market Authority (EMA)
Land Transport Authority (LTA)
National Environment Agency (NEA)

The EPG has four working groups on Economic Competitiveness, Energy Security, Climate Change and the Environment, and Energy Industry Development, headed by the different agencies shown below:

epg

3. Singapore’s Economic Focus

Singapore’s energy and climate change policies are influenced mainly by economic considerations. The government will take pragmatic and cost-effective actions to reduce emissions and adopt clean energy, as long as the actions does not affect our economic growth or add to costs greatly.

We can’t volunteer to take drastic measures to reduce emissions on our own, at the cost of our economy and our economic growth because this is not a problem which any country can do by itself. … We contribute less than 0.2% of all the carbon emissions worldwide – 0.2% – so what we do in Singapore is not going to change the world. … but we can’t say, therefore, we ignore it. We will do our fair share as part of a global effort to reduce greenhouse gases. – Prime Minister Lee Hsien Loong

Energy plays an indispensable role in our economy, and will remain critical to our continued economic growth and development. The ultimate aim of our energy policy is to support Singapore’s continued economic growth. – National Energy Policy Report

4. Energy Supply

About 80% of Singapore’s electricity is generated from natural gas piped from Malaysia and Indonesia. The remaining electricity is generated from fuel oil and a small percentage from diesel and refuse. The government understands that we are vulnerable to energy supply and price risks as we import all our oil and gas, and has taken steps to diversify our energy supplies.

To diversify our natural gas supply, the government has decided to import Liquefied Natural Gas (LNG) and plan to have the LNG import terminal ready in 2012. This would reduce our reliance on our neighbors and increase our supply of natural gas from countries that are further from Singapore such as Australia, Qatar and Russia.

solarpark1 In addition, the government is looking at other energy sources such as solar and biofuels, and is open to other clean energy technologies and will consider these energy technologies as and when it becomes viable for adoption.

5. Clean Energy

The government has identified the clean energy industry as a key growth area since Mar 2007. The clean energy industry is expected to contribute S$1.7 billion to the GDP and create 7,000 jobs by 2015. The government has put in place several initiatives and funding to attract clean energy companies to set up their operations in Singapore and create jobs, and also to encourage research and development and test-bedding in clean energy technologies.

However, the government has made it clear that it will not subsidise clean energy:

Our basic policy tenet is that energy costs should be borne in full by end users. Individuals and industries should adjust their consumption of energy according to its true cost as reflected in its price. We do not subsidise the cost of energy because it will dampen price signals, and create the incentive to over-consume. … As it stands, renewable energies such as solar are still as some members have noted, much more expensive than traditional fossil fuel-based energy. To be consistent with our basic principles, we should not adopt measures which subsidise specific renewable energy types. – Senior Minister of State S. Iswaran, MTI

In Singapore, solar energy is the most promising clean energy source. However, the cost of solar energy generation is currently about twice that of energy generated by fossil fuel. In the Sustainable Development Blueprint, the government announced its plans:

We will invest early in solar technology test-bedding projects to prepare to use solar technology on a larger scale when the cost of solar energy falls closer to that of conventional energy.

HDB will implement a large-scale solar test-bed for public housing within 30 precincts islandwide, which will cost $31 million and provide 3.1 megawatts peak of solar capacity. This trial will help Singapore to implement solar technology on a larger scale when it becomes cost effective in the future.

6. Carbon Intensity and Energy Efficiency

Singapore does not have a target to reduce absolute carbon dioxide emissions. Instead, Singapore has a national target to improve our carbon intensity by 25% from 1990 level by 2012 under the Singapore Green Plan 2012. We have already met the target and even exceeded it (read Singapore’s Carbon Dioxide Emissions Per Capita and Carbon Intensity).

Singapore’s key strategy to reduce carbon dioxide emissions is to be more energy efficient. The Sustainable Development Blueprint sets a target to reduce our energy intensity (per dollar GDP) by 20% from 2005 levels by 2020, and by 35% from 2005 levels by 2030.

To help Singapore meet the targets, the Energy Efficiency Programme Office (E2PO) is promoting energy efficiency in the various sectors through the Energy Efficient Singapore policies and measures (read the Overview of the Energy Situation in Singapore).

Image credit: garytamin; Energy Policy Group via National Energy Policy Report.

Tags: A*STAR, BCA, Carbon emissions, Carbon intensity, Clean energy, Climate change, E2 Singapore, E2PO, EDB, EMA, Energy efficiency, Energy Efficiency Programme Office, Energy Efficient Singapore, Energy policies, Energy Policy Group, Energy supply, HDB, LNG, LTA, MEWR, MFA, MOF, MOT, MTI, National Climate Change Strategy, National Energy Policy Report, National policies, Natural gas, NEA, SGP 2012, Singapore Green Plan 2012, Singapore policies, Solar energy, Solar testbed, Sustainable Development Blueprint

Singapore’s Carbon Dioxide Emissions Per Capita and Carbon Intensity

May 14, 2009 by Eugene Tay
Filed under Features, Issues and Policies

8 Comments

singapore-in-black Is Singapore carbon intensive and a big contributor of carbon dioxide per capita in the world? How do we compare with other developed countries? Let’s take a look at Singapore’s total carbon dioxide emissions, carbon dioxide emissions per capita, and carbon intensity.

1. Carbon Dioxide Emissions

According to the National Climate Change Strategy, the carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions in Singapore are generated from the following sectors (in 2005):

singapore-carbon-emissions

Singapore’s total absolute CO2 emissions and CO2 emissions per capita from 1990 to 2007 is shown in the graph below, based on statistics from the Ministry of the Environment and Water Resources, the National Climate Change Strategy and the Singapore Department of Statistics.

carbon-emissions-in-singapore

Singapore’s CO2 emissions is 39.9 Mt in 2007, which accounts for less than 0.2% of global CO2 emissions. The graph shows that Singapore’s CO2 emissions has increased about 83% from 1990 to 2007 but has remained relatively constant over the past 4 years. The CO2 emissions per capita has also reached a peak in 2004 and declined slowly. This is likely due to the switch to cleaner natural gas for power generation and other energy efficiency measures by the government.

2. Carbon Intensity

Carbon intensity is usually measured in terms of the CO2 emissions per dollar GDP at 2000 prices. A low carbon intensity means that the country is able to produce each unit of output with less CO2 emissions.

The graph below shows Singapore’s carbon intensity from 1990 to 2007, based on statistics from the Ministry of the Environment and Water Resources, the National Climate Change Strategy and the Singapore Department of Statistics.

carbon-intensity-in-singapore

Singapore’s carbon intensity is 0.17 kgCO2/2000S$ in 2007 and has dropped by about 39% from 1990 to 2007, likely due to the switch to cleaner natural gas for power generation and other energy efficiency measures. Under the Singapore Green Plan 2012, a target has been set to improve our carbon intensity by 25% from 1990 level by 2012. We have already met the target and even exceeded it.

3. Discrepancy Between Carbon Statistics

There is some dispute on whether Singapore is carbon intensive and a big contributor of CO2 per person in the world, which arises due to the different sources of energy statistics used. There are two commonly quoted sources of energy statistics – the Energy Information Administration (EIA) and the International Energy Agency (IEA).

The graph below shows the CO2 emissions per capita for selected countries in 2006 based on statistics from EIA’s International Energy Statistics and IEA’s Key World Energy Statistics 2008. If the EIA data is used, the CO2 emissions per capita for Singapore is much higher than the US, other developed countries and the world average. If the IEA data is used, the CO2 emissions per capita for Singapore is lower than other developed countries such as the US, Australia and Finland.

co2-per-capita

The graph below shows the carbon intensity for selected countries in 2006 based on statistics from EIA’s International Energy Statistics and IEA’s Key World Energy Statistics 2008. If the EIA data is used, the carbon intensity for Singapore is higher than the US, other developed countries and the world average. If the IEA data is used, the carbon intensity for Singapore is lower than the world average and other developed countries such as the US, Australia and Finland.

carbon-intensity

The discrepancy between the EIA and IEA statistics is due to the different calculation of energy consumption. The energy consumption based on the EIA is higher as it includes marine bunkers in its calculation and as Singapore is the largest marine bunkering centre in the world, our energy consumption is thus overestimated, which in turn leads to higher CO2 emissions and carbon intensity for Singapore. On the other hand, IEA excludes marine bunkers from its calculation of energy consumption. Read the Overview of the Energy Situation in Singapore for more discussion on the discrepancy.

Image credit: mjamesno; Key CO2 Contributors (2005) via National Climate Change Strategy.

Tags: Carbon dioxide, Carbon dioxide emissions per capita, Carbon emissions, Carbon intensity, Carbon intensive, CO2, CO2 emissions, EIA, Energy Information Administration, Energy statistics, IEA, International Energy Agency, Marine bunkers, MEWR, National Climate Change Strategy, SGP 2012