Singapore to Reduce Carbon Emissions by 16% Below 2020 Business-As-Usual Levels

Before the Copenhagen Conference

On 2 December 2009, the Singapore government announced that Singapore will reduce its carbon emissions by 16% below 2020 business-as-usual levels, provided that:

Singapore will only commit to this if there is a legally binding global deal that obliges all countries to cut emissions, and if other countries offer significant pledges

- Senior Minister S. Jayakumar

This announcement was made in light of the UN Climate Change Conference 2009 (COP15) in Copenhagen, Denmark, which was held from December 7-18, 2009. Read more about the 16% cut and the government’s approach to COP15 from the Ministry of Foreign Affairs news release.

After the Copenhagen Conference

The discussions at COP15 failed to produce a legally binding global agreement and instead resulted in a non-binding Copenhagen Accord. Nevertheless, the Singapore government said that:

When a global agreement on climate change is reached we will implement the additional measures to achieve the full 16 percent reduction below business as usual in 2020

- Dr Yaacob Ibrahim, Minister for the Environment and Water Resources

The next round of climate talks and discussions on a global agreement will be at COP16 in Mexico from November to December 2010. Meanwhile, the government announced that it would still cut emissions by between 7% to 11% below business-as-usual levels, which was planned as part of the Sustainable Singapore Blueprint published in April 2009 (the 7% to 11% cut was not mentioned during the release of the blueprint). The full 16% cut will be implemented when a global agreement is reached in the future.

Our Thoughts on the 16% Cut

Singapore’s target means it will cut roughly 12 million tonnes of CO2 by 2020, said Dr Yaacob.

This is based on a projection that the country’s emissions would reach 75 million tonnes of CO2 by 2020 if no measures were taken.

- Straits Times

Singapore’s absolute carbon emissions in 2007 is about 40 million tonnes and from the statement above, it seems that the government projected that carbon emissions will reach 75 million tonnes in 2020 on a business-as-usual scenario. If Singapore takes action to reduce its emissions by 16%, the cut is equivalent to 12 million tonnes, meaning that emissions would reach 63 million tonnes in 2020. This cut is just based on 2020 levels, which implies that there is no peak in emissions and a drop thereafter. What we would expect is a continuous increase in absolute carbon emissions till 2020.

The graph above shows the absolute carbon emissions from 1990 (22 Mt) to 2007 (40 Mt) based on available published data by the government. If we do a projection of the emissions from 2008 to 2020 based on an estimated 5% annual growth (BAU), we would reach 75 Mt, which is the business-as-usual scenario projected by the government.

If we do a projection of the emissions from 2008 to 2020 based on an estimated 3.6% annual growth (pledge), we would reach 63 Mt, which is the 16% cut committed or the we-will-take-action scenario projected by the government.

From 1990 to 2007, the average annual emissions growth is about 3.6%. We would expect a projection for business-as-usual scenarios for the future to use this number but the government uses a higher business-as-usual growth of 5%.

What we find strange is that when the government commits to the 16% cut by 2020, it is reducing the average annual growth in emissions from 2008 to 2020 from 5% to 3.6%, which is the same annual growth as what we have been doing over the past 17 years. In other words, if we continue business-as-usual from 2008 to 2020 without the 16% cut, we would still reach the projected 63 million tonnes in 2020 or the we-will-take-action scenario.

So, are we really reducing carbon emissions by 16% from 2020 BAU levels or are we just assuming a higher BAU level in 2020 and then committing to 16% cuts, which results in a level we would reached anyway if we don’t take any measures to reduce emissions?

Let us know what you think.

True or False: Singapore to Reduce Carbon Emissions Growth by 16% from 2020 BAU Levels

This post was first published at AsiaIsGreen.

You must have already heard of the announcement yesterday that Singapore will reduce carbon emissions growth by 16% from 2020 business-as-usual levels, provided that:

Singapore will only commit to this if there is a legally binding global deal that obliges all countries to cut emissions, and if other countries offer significant pledges, said Professor Jayakumar. – Straits Times

Read more from the Ministry of Foreign Affairs news release and from the local media.

We were wondering yesterday whether the 16% cut refers to absolute carbon emissions or carbon intensity, and whether the cut is from 1990 or 2005 levels. But having read the news over again, we realised that:

Singapore’s target means it will cut roughly 12 million tonnes of CO2 by 2020, said Dr Yaacob.

This is based on a projection that the country’s emissions would reach 75 million tonnes of CO2 by 2020 if no measures were taken. – Straits Times

Singapore’s absolute carbon emissions in 2007 is about 40 million tonnes and from the statement above, it seems that the government projected that carbon emissions will reach 75 million tonnes in 2020 on a business-as-usual scenario. If Singapore takes action to reduce its emissions by 16%, the cut is equivalent to 12 million tonnes, meaning that emissions would reach 63 million tonnes in 2020. This cut is not based on 1990 or 2005 levels, it is just based on 2020 levels, which implies that there is no peak in emissions and a drop thereafter. What we would expect is a continuous increase in absolute carbon emissions till 2020.

The graph above shows the absolute carbon emissions from 1990 (22 Mt) to 2007 (40 Mt) based on available published data by the government. If we do a projection of the emissions from 2008 to 2020 based on an estimated 5% annual growth (BAU), we would reach 75 Mt, which is the business-as-usual scenario projected by the government.

If we do a projection of the emissions from 2008 to 2020 based on an estimated 3.6% annual growth (pledge), we would reach 63 Mt, which is the 16% cut committed or the we-will-take-action scenario projected by the government.

From 1990 to 2007, the average annual emissions growth is about 3.6%. We would expect a projection for business-as-usual scenarios for the future to use this number but the government uses a higher business-as-usual growth of 5%.

What we find funny is that when the government commits to the 16% cut by 2020, it is reducing the average annual growth in emissions from 2008 to 2020 from 5% to 3.6%, which is the same annual growth as what we have been doing over the past 17 years. In other words, if we continue business-as-usual from 2008 to 2020 without the 16% cut, we would still reach the projected 63 million tonnes in 2020 or the we-will-take-action scenario.

So, are we really reducing carbon emissions by 16% from 2020 BAU levels or are we just assuming a higher BAU level in 2020 and then committing to 16% cuts, which results in a level we would reached anyway if we don’t take any measures to reduce emissions?

Or are we just plainly wrong, make wrong assumptions and mistakes? Or did we get the maths wrong? Or maybe we are just talking rubbish and don’t know what we are talking about? Let us know what you think.

Adopt Green IT and Green Computing Practices

Green IT or green computing usually refers to making the data centre and other IT system or equipment more energy efficient, and to reduce the environmental impacts associated with IT, such as recycling of computing equipment.

You can adopt the following Green IT practices on energy efficiency in your organisation’s data centre, energy efficient office equipment, energy saving tips and recycling of used electronic equipment.

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Energy Efficiency in Data Centre

Your organisation’s data centre uses a substantial amount of energy for power and cooling purposes, especially as computing demand grows in your organisation. It is possible to reduce the energy consumption by optimising the data centre’s performance, efficiency and space through power and cooling analysis, virtualization, and using energy efficient servers. Consult your IT vendor on energy saving solutions for your data centre. You can also visit the Greener Computing website for more news and tips on Green IT.

Here are some Green IT vendors:

• APC
• Asaiki Technology
• Cisco
• Dell
• Fujitsu
• HP
• IBM
• Sun Microsystems

In the Sustainable Singapore blueprint report published in April 2009, one of the new initiatives by the government is to promote energy efficiency in data centres:

Data centres, server rooms and IT equipment account for a significant amount of energy use in buildings. The government will work with the Information and Communications Technology (ICT) industry to develop and promote the adoption of green data centre standards that will reduce the power consumption of IT systems. These standards will take into account the ongoing international efforts in this area as well as guidelines and best practices for data centre design, setup and operations. The public sector will also adopt green data centre practices and promote awareness of green data centre benefits among data centre operators in the public sector, develop training and certification programmes for the public and private sector data centre operators, and promote R&D in energy efficient data centres.

Check with the Energy Efficiency Programme Office on the incentives available for Green IT.

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Energy Efficient Office Equipment

In Singapore, computers, printers and photocopiers are not included under the Energy Label scheme. So if you’re looking for energy efficient computing equipment, you can look for ENERGY STAR qualified equipment instead. The ENERGY STAR is a US labeling program to identify and promote energy efficient products. Find a suitable model from this wide range of ENERGY STAR products.

When buying new computers, choose laptops instead of desktops as a laptop uses less energy. If your organisation needs to buy desktops, choose those with flat panel LCD monitors instead of CRT monitors, as a LCD monitor is more energy efficient and lasts longer. Also remember to choose the right-sized monitor to meet the office’s needs. A bigger monitor uses more energy.

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Energy Saving Tips

Remember to switch off all the computing equipment when leaving the office or when they are not in use, and don’t leave them on standby mode as the standby mode still consumes energy. Here’s what you can do:

• Connect different equipment to a power strip so that you only need to turn off one switch
• Use plugin timers to switch off equipment after office hours
• Use the power management mode on your computer to turn off the computer after some time of inactivity
• Use the free Auto Shutdown software to schedule Windows shut down

When the computing equipment is in use, here’s what you can do to reduce energy consumption:

• Set photocopiers, printers and other equipment on energy saving mode
• Reduce the brightness of the computers to cut energy consumption as the factory default setting may be brighter than necessary
• Disable the computer’s screen saver as the screen-saving mode uses more energy than in standby mode
• Use the power management mode on your computer and enable the energy saving features
• Use the free Edison software to optimise power settings

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Recycling

You can recycle your used electronic equipment such as computers and printers through your IT vendor who usually can take them back. If they don’t, check out this guide to electrical and electronic waste recycling at Zero Waste Singapore.

Image credit: jodax.